The Trillion Dollar Equation

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Published 2024-02-27
The most famous equation in finance, the Black-Scholes/Merton equation, came from physics. It launched an industry worth trillions of dollars and led to the world’s best investments. Go to www.eightsleep.com/veritasium and use the code Veritasium for $200 off your Pod Cover.

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A huge thank you to Prof. Andrew Lo (MIT) for speaking with us and helping with the script.

We would also like to thank the following:
Prof. Amanda Turner (University of Leeds)
Owen Maher (Electrify Video Partners)

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References:

The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons launched the quant revolution, Gregory Zuckerman. Penguin Publishing Group. - ve42.co/GZuckerman

The Physics of Finance: Predicting the Unpredictable: Can Science Beat the Market? James Owen Weatherall. Short Books. - ve42.co/FinancePhysics

The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets, J.Voigt. Springer. - ve42.co/Springer

Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of political economy, 81(3), 637-654. - ve42.co/BlackScholes

Cornell, B. (2020). Medallion fund: The ultimate counterexample?. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 46(4), 156-159. - ve42.co/Medallion

Images & Video:
Ed Thorp on The Tim Ferris Show -    • Beating Blackjack and Roulette, Beati...  
Jim Simons on TED -    • The mathematician who cracked Wall St...  
Jim Simons on Numberphile -    • James Simons (full length interview) ...  

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Directed by Will Wood and Derek Muller
Written by Will Wood, Emily Zhang, Petr Lebedev and Derek Muller
Camera operation by Raquel Nuno
Additional research by Gregor Čavlović
Edited by Jack Saxon and Trenton Oliver
Animated by Fabio Albertelli, Jakub Misiek, Ivy Tello, David Szakaly and Will Wood
Produced by Will Wood, Han Evans and Derek Muller

Thumbnail by Ren Hurley
Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images and Pond5
Music from Epidemic Sound

All Comments (21)
  • "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people" this gotta be one of the hardest quotes.
  • @CassyZee
    When a physics channel explains F&O better than any finance channel 🙏🏻
  • 1:00 Just heard about Jim Simons' passing today (10th May 2024). I recalled watching his contribution to hedge funding from this channel about two months ago. I came here to appreciate his contribution once more. RIP Legend!
  • @Coerciveutopian
    I love that his answer about whether this helps or not is basically "when things are good it's fine, but when things go bad it makes things much worse". Which...yeah.
  • You are better at explaining financial economics than most econ/finance channel on youtube
  • @Novascrub
    A young economist and an old economist are walking down the street, and the young economist says, "Look! A $20 bill!". The old economist says, "Nonsense. If there were a $20 bill just laying on the ground, someone would have picked it up already."
  • It's worth mentioning that Merton and Scholes, who were champions of the efficient market hypothesis, were part of the board of directors of a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital, which ironically sought to exploit market inefficiencies to make money. The fund ended up collapsing less than 4 years later and receiving a huge bailout. In the years before, Ed Thorp's fund was making record profits until it was dismantled by the US gov. Source: Fortune's Formula, very interesting read
  • @ST-nu6ib
    Unfortunately, Prof. Jim Simons passed away today (May 10, 2024). As a graduate student in math department of Stony Brook University, I came to know this earlier. He's genius of a person. Rest in peace, rest in knowledge. I always wanted to meet him but the nature has other plans. Om Shanti.
  • @neutron417
    It's so fascinating to see the dots being connected from finance to math to a physics breakthrough, science is beautiful
  • @ankur.mahajan
    I don't think that there is any other channel that brings such kind of interesting technical content in such lucid terms.
  • @DR-tx3ix
    Unless I missed it, they didn't mention LTCM (Long Term Capital Management). It was a multi-billion dollar investment firm founded in 1994 by two Nobel laureates using the Black-Scholles model -- and it went bankrupt in 1998.
  • @blazejecar
    you have such a gift to explain these things. Your video on Fourier transformation helped me immensely in my PhD dissertation actually (i still had to find "legit" sources cause a veritasium video doesn't count, but I understood it better from you than from any "proper" papers). Please never stop making these, you explain complicated things so well
  • The style of this video is brilliant. It reminds me of a film where there are multiple plot lines and these seemingly unrelated subplots satisfyingly come together at the end.
  • @Retotion
    I've never fully grasped how options worked until now, I swear other people go out of their way to make it appear more complicated than it really is.
  • @AriCagan
    One of the best descriptions of options I’ve ever heard, the olive press is so easy to understand
  • @WaterTheMcee
    This is such a beautifully intricate breakdown of the Black Scholes model and Derivative pricing. I have an exam in a few weeks that includes 6 chapters on the mathematics and economics of derivatives so thank you for this video. Talk about right on time!
  • @satvikpatil3363
    "What did Simons get right that Newton got wrong? For one thing Simons was able to stand on the shoulders of giants." Masterpiece.
  • As a pure math undergrad turned math teacher turned stats masters turned actuary... just wow. I had a smile across my face throughout as you connected the dots across the history of this topic. Fantastic as usual
  • I did a PhD in it (2008 - 2012 at the University of Sydney). Black and Scholes got the maths wrong by holding the portfolio flux fixed flat at r, debasing it of market return mu with a surreptitious slack variable (from the constraint on the portfolio returns). This means that the formula is systematically inaccurate in that it underprices calls (upside) and overprices puts (downside). The need for implied volatility is the (inadvertent) admission that the formula is wrong (because it does not contain mu). The binomial model perpetuated this nonsense of not having market return mu in option premiums by removing the flux by changing p (also by debasing the portfolio flux). Apparently someone forgot to check the risk and return properties of that model (noting that binomial variables are already under-dispersed and financial markets are intrinsically over-dispersed). Not having mu in option premiums is essentially financial communism.
  • @hemmel777
    Obviously none of them heard of Nanci Pelosi