Becoming a Kardashev Type I Civilization

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Published 2018-09-11
The Kardashev Scale has become a standardized way of classifying (hypothetical) advanced civilizations. The lowest rank, Type 1, is still way ahead of us - but by how much? When will we achieve Type 1 status and exactly how could we plausibly do so? In this video, we go through some estimates of when humanity might become Type 1, and in particular what kind of energy sources we could harness to achieve this feat.

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► Kardashev (1964), "Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations", Soviet Astronomy, 8, 217: adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1964SvA.....8..217K
► Michio Kaku video clip from BigThink:    • Michio Kaku: Will Mankind Destroy Its...  
► Wind map movie credit to Rufinoman and earth.nullschool.net:    • Video  
► Wind energy calculation based off Smil (2004), "Inherent limits of renewable energies"
► References for the 3.7TW figure for tidal energy dissipation are: Cartwright 1993 (Theory of ocean tides with application to altimetry, in Satellite Altimetry in Geodesy and Oceanography, edites by R. Rummel and F. Sanso, pp. 99-141, Springer-Verlag, New York), Ray 1994 (Tidal energy dissipation: Observations from astronomy, geodesy, and oceanography, in, The Oceans, edited by S. Majumdaret al., pp. 171-185, Pa. Acad. of Sci., Easton, Pa.), Kagan & Sundermann 1996 (Kagan Dissipation of tidal energy paleotides, and evolution of the Earth-Moon system, Adv. Geophys., 38, pp. 179-266)
► Solar video comes from NASA SDO and GSFC: svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12706
► Learn more about the Carno cycle here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnot_cycle
► Learn more about the planetary equilibrium calculation here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_equilibrium_temper…
► Tidal power map comes from Gunn & Stock-Williams (2012): www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148…
► Outro music by Thomas Bergersen "Final Frontier": www.thomasbergersen.com/
► Columbia University Department of Astronomy: www.astro.columbia.edu/
► Cool Worlds Lab website: coolworlds.astro.columbia.edu/

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All Comments (21)
  • @CoolWorldsLab
    Rest In Peace to Nikolai Kardashev who sadly passed away to become a Type IV civilization in the beyond on August 3rd 2019. What a wonderful mind, he will be missed.
  • @bumbixp
    Left the oven on all day. Doing my part!
  • @b.aleman8401
    I was watching this and it cut to an ad. The exact words I heard were "That leaves us with 2 options. Solar energy and - Explosive diarrhea? Upset stomach? Painful indigestion?".... I laughed for like 4 minutes straight.
  • @TeslaKuhn8
    Something I just now thought of, halfway through this presentation, is that we are also using less energy to do the same things as before. In other words, efficiency. That might throw the numbers off even more.
  • @ccboi7851
    One thing to keep in mind that it is not just about the energy consumption, it's also about controlling the energy and use it in effective and constructive ways.
  • See you all in 2120 when we are a type 1 civilisation and YouTube algorithm re-unites us all
  • @Jabroney
    So what you’re telling me is that solar energy is just long-distance nuclear energy? 🤔
  • @AlmostEthical
    Another quality video. Personally, I question Kardashev's assumptions, which I think are rather sci-fi. In time, energy use would ideally become more efficient and the measure of a civilisation's advancement would be ever less based on the energy they use and ever more on the amount of integrated information they process.

    The animal kingdom provides an example. Empowerment based on size had its limits, with increased information processing turning out to be more potent.
  • The Kardashev scale originally was meant to describe the power of advanced civilizations, in particular, those that have achieved the ability of space flight. It uses a geometric progression based on the amount of power accessed by the species as it grows. The earliest emerging civilizations don't appear, except as fractional numbers, because their activity is not very significant on a cosmic scale. These only get a full count when they might be noticed by a theoretical "outside observer," as you will soon see. I am adding a few extra levels to the original three, since there was little use for that as a measuring stick to evaluate gradual progress. Let me start near the beginning, when the culture starts to reveal its potential significance.

    Type One: "Novice"
       (revised) intensive use of more than half of the planet's habitable surface area for urban dwelling, agricultural production, industry or resource extractive purposes. Oceans, ice caps and deserts are not typically considered habitable, although some oases may exist.

    Type Two: "Unstable"
       (revised) threatening the ecological health of the planet by careless practices, whether by stripping resources, excessive pollution, or loss of secondary species.

    Type Three: "Emergent"
    (revised) has acquired sufficient technology to make space flight and colonial ventures possible. Potential for mass self-destruction demands a quest for coexistence.

    Type Four: "Maximized"
    (original) Type One: intentional use of all the insolation received by the planet for food or power.
    (revised) has accessed or made feasible all of the resources and energy available on the planet. Approaching a sustainable global regime for shared resources and political consensus or a tolerant balance of powers.

    Type Five: "Outbreak"
    (revised) has established self-sufficient populations, with trade routes, in multiple extra-planetary colonies, and continuing to spread. Industrial development of free-floating habitats, space infrastructure and specialized project construction begins.

    Type Six: "Established"
    (revised) has explored the entire stellar system in sufficient detail to map a super-majority of its geography and resources. Technological proficiency allows pioneers to colonize the frontiers at will, and choose political independence.

    Type Seven: "Expansive"
    (original) Type Two: intentional use of all of the energy output of the star for habitation and industrial purposes.
    (revised) complete access to all of the resources and energy available within the star system, including its planets, moons, and smaller satellites. Experimental robotic ships explore the nearer neighboring star systems and the conditions of intermediate space.

    Type Eight: "Arrival"
    (revised) first colonies established around other star systems. Ultrahigh-energy physics experiments explore the potential for travel at relativistic or supra-lightspeed velocities.

    Type Nine: "Manifesto"
    (revised) seeding the stellar neighborhood with many colonial ventures, discovering the range of variety of system formation and geography, and revealing the frequency of the origins of life.

    Type Ten: "Epitome"
    (original) Type Three: acquisition and use of the entire energy output of all of the stars in the whole galaxy.
    (revised) technological capacity to range at will throughout the galaxy, planting colonies, developing resources and tapping unlimited energy as needed to sustain the presence and growth of the species in all its various iterations. Sophisticated modes of long distance travel and self-contained habitat ships allow for sporadic attempts to surpass galactic boundaries.

    Conclusion: 
    As you can see, the original version of the Kardashev scale assessing the power use of a space-faring civilization was excessively over-simplified. Having only three tiers, it did not allow for any detail or description of the intermediate stages of development. At every stage, it required an "all or nothing" obvious achievement in order to advance to the next rung of the ladder, and totally lacked any descriptive or predictive powers.

    This revised version does have more capacity for descriptions, and also allows for a certain amount of flexibility. It can be used to note and measure some fractional attainments, and can accept some skipping and mixing of non-linear development patterns, while still offering some definite levels of meaningful achievement for comparisons.

    Nor does the new scale have to terminate at the edge of the galaxy, or proceed to such degrees as beggar the imagination. At  Type Eleven, the colonization of another galaxy, and at Type Twelve, the colonization of the whole local group of galaxies is enough, while further expansion into the greater Super Cluster and beyond may be designated by more numbered levels. These do however go so far beyond the imagination that those technologies would likely appear magical to our sensibilities. And any further would simply involve the acquisition of the entire knowable Universe.

    It seems probable that, at some point, even before we claim the far reaches of our own galaxy, we are likely to discover another intelligent, civilized and space-faring species and learn not only whether the scale is truly useful, but have the realization that we must share the Cosmos with our neighbors. And that will be a clear answer to one of the oldest questions we have ever thought to ask.

    If you wish to adopt and promote this revised scale for the comparison of developing civilizations and space-faring technology, you may be my guest. I ask only that you acknowledge and attribute it to its source, and name it the "Makarios Scale." Makarios means "Blessed" in greek, and any species and civilization that this scale would measure should be well aware of their blessings.

    And I thank you for your patience and kind consideration. Shalom. I published this in September 2020, in my own obscure little blog:
    www.emunahechad.blogspot.com
  • @torytrae1974
    We should probably focus more on not becoming type "extinct" civilization
  • Option 3: We find a way to siphon off more heat into space. If we are suppose to control the weather as a type 1 civilization (in the original), that means we should be able to control the temperature anyway.
    option 4: We manipulate the atmosphere so that it becomes more reflexive (maybe just for certain wavelengths)
    Option 5: We find a way to transfer heat (ideally to a planet that needs heating for terraforming) by some special form of artificial wormhole.
  • @Slider68
    I always assumed a type 1 lived on multiple planets, type 2 lived on multiple solar systems and type 3 lived on multiple galaxies.

    I don't see how you can control and consume so much energy on a single planet.
  • @xZack52x
    I thought I was subscribed to enough science related channels. I was wrong.
  • 2020: "In hundred years we'll become a Kardashev Type I Civilization."

    2120: Despacito 420
  • @redacted4125
    With fusion reactions finally having been used to create more energy than what is used in order to create the fusion reaction, it might actually be possible to become a kardashev type I civilization.
  • @fatercoelho7476
    2 takeaways:
    1) Yes, in my mind, it wouldn't make sense that a Type1 would not be multiplanetary, on one side you have all the issues you mentioned, on the other there's the case of what would we use that energy for if we aren't even ferrying cargo across planets. It looks like we might be mutiplanetary in the next 100y. Not as likely to be type I before that. And the logic would go for a type2, surelly they would have multiple star systems at their disposal rather then completely harvesting a single star. Very risky to experiment in a planet/star if it's the only one you have.
    2) We would probably want to recycle our energy. As you said, the energy isn't wasted it's converted into kinetic energy. Rather then build a giant fan to cool it down, build a giant "fan" (read, wind turbines) to harvest that warmth (and cool it back down as a biproduct)

    Imagine the following experiment: a 1m cube in vaccum. at the bottom there is a computer, and as it uses energy it warms the air around it, causing the now warm air to flow upwards and the cool air to flow downwards. Now place 2 wind turbines that capture the energy of said air moving both upwards and downwards. The process of using electricity by the computer provides an opportunity to harvest more power. Not claiming that you will get a 100% recyclable system, but if you could recycle 50% of the consumed power, that would mean that every 1 watt of power harvested from the sun would produce 2 watts of power before being released back into the planet. With a 90% recycle rate it would give us an entire order of magnitude: 1 watt harvested = 10 watts used before it leaves the planet's control
  • @ohhkennny766
    seeing stuff like this makes me depressed knowing I won't live long enough to see this happen, almost like how people in the 1800s can't see how much we've evolved from back then
  • @MetalRhino42
    i'm already type 1 diabetic so i'm type 1 sooner then the rest of you.
  • Regarding that question at the end, how to sidestep the issue of warming up the planet in the process: as far as I know, Kardashev didn't say that the energy must be consumed on-planet, just that it had to be consumed by the civilisation. We could have our factories in space, and that would count towards our energy expenditure. Same for the mining drones in the Kuyper belt. For that matter, the terraforming equipment on or around a promising colonisation target. Even if it's in a different solar system and nobody lives there yet. Or the various fleets of science vessels out in interstellar space. Or that huge armada, should we manage to piss off the wrong alien civilisation. None of these would contribute to warming the planet, but they do count towards our "Kardashevness".
  • The waste heat is more usable energy, just in a different form. We just need an efficient way to concentrate, transform and/or transport it. If we discover an efficient enough thermo-electric effect that energy can go into food production, supplying base load power or in materials production, free industrial furnaces for all, and the conservation of energy is maintained.

    Also if you have a global structure that is only being heated by 47TW's/ large sections of it will probably need active heating anyway.