Yes, it has.... AND 5e 2024, AS WELL!

I've now played the DDB VTT and, I gotta say, you're right. Modding BG3 is probably going to give a better experience. If Larian added a Neverwinter Nights-esque expansion that allowed for DMing and servers, etc, there would be no contest.

BG3 will teach players that dropping heavy things from up high works well IF it hits. One of the biggest issues with any game or VTT is that players are either not encouraged to think outside the box or are simply not allowed to. Social interactions are especially vulnerable to this.

Im a bg3 modder (Creator of Animist Sorcerer, Fighter Rework, Tashas BM Manuevers, and soon to be psi warrior and rogue rework). Its coming, the desire is 1000% there, but its not going to be here any time in the forseeable future, at least until very robust mod tools are given. Right now we're still modding using text editors and wrestling with odd arbitrary script. Tools are slowly being developed though (like the script extender and modders mutlitool etc.) that will probably exponentially grow the intensity of the mods. As more and more mods get made, mod makers have more and more references to use as a template. Id say we're maybe 2% of the way there so far, but itll get there provided larian gives great modding tools

This reminds me of an anecdote. Players were facing a Dragon that breathed sodium, the DM thought it’d be challenging as there would be no resistance from it. One of the players was a chemist. He said he’d hold his action waiting for the dragon to start his breath weapon attack to… cast create water. The DM didn’t quite get it at first, then he was pointed at looking what sodium does when put in contact with water. BooM. Some players are just terrifying

A quick clarification for 4:35 - Wizards of the Coast funded the movie, but didn't put a cent into BG3's development. Larian apparently paid for the license and then funded BG3 themselves as a private company (which is quite the feat). Acknowledging Baron didn't actually say WotC funded BG3 - but it's easy to mishear in this vid, and a misconception that has been thrown around the internet a bunch.

Fun fact: all of Renegade's Hasbro RPGs use the same engine. So you can have a crossover event that involves Joes and Ponies taking on the Decepticons and Rita Repulsa.

Not all the rules in Baldur's Gate 3 are the same as in 5th edition. We're technically going to get a bunch of people who know the rules possibly more deeply but not without some confusion and disappointment.

Two of my players play BG3, and they are already showing better understanding of the rules. You're right about BG3 improving player knowledge. That's an interesting point about Renegade Studios. But if any of those games become lucrative, Hasbro won't renew the license and can bring the game in-house by releasing a new edition via WotC. Matt Mercer used Original Sin 2 to run D&D as a promo for Larian. After that, a lot of people said they we're going to run D&D that way. How many actually did? I think all this merely creates options. I'm sure some people will use BG3 mods to play D&D. Some will use the WotC VTT. Some may even use the new DnDBeyond MAPS. And others will continue with Owlbear or AboveVTT or whatever they're already using. I think the player base is broad enough... there's no One-VTT-to-Rule-Them-All.

For me, Baldur's Gate 3 is the definitive D&D experience adapted to a video-game, and i've been playing RPGs both tabletop and video games for more than 2 decades. Seldom i've felt empty after playing a game and that happened after i finished BG3, I wanted more and more and more, that's how good it was!

I would love it if bg3 turned into a VTT through mods, I’ve always wanted something like that since Neverwinter Nights, but even NWN, a game made specifically to let people DM their groups, didn’t get that kind of lasting traction. I’m still not convinced a BG3 DMing mod will take off. I hope I’m wrong, but typically systems that do 3D VTT style things take a ton of work and time to learn and use.

Solasta is also worth a look for players who don't mind the indie implementation of the core D&D rules - they have a campaign builder and actually made no real changes to the ruleset like BG3 did. It also handles flying much better than BG3 and I think now you can go as high as level 14. It's not a triple-A experience, but it's an excellent system.

If I was making decisions at Wotc, I think I would try to create an ecosystem and marketplace of new BG3 adventures in co-operation with Larian. They could easily sell official adventures like Waterdeep dragon heist and Curse of Strahd. But they could also benefit from other people making modules: host free modules for free, but allow people to create and sell their own adventures there, taking some percentage cut from the profit. While dm mod would be awesome, I think a well integrated map and adventure creator tool could be more popular and offer easier paths to monetization. User made content would keep the community and platform active, but the official content could still do well because of higher interactivity and more professional voice acting and writing.

As far as video games as training aids go, I learned to play D&D 3.x very easily because I started playing Neverwinter Nights (PC game) in 2002. Neverwinter Nights was my gateway into D&D and I bought the 3e Forgotten Realms Setting and D&D 3.5e books as my first D&D books after I had been playing Neverwinter Nights for awhile. So speaking as someone who came to TTRPG after learning the mechanics in video games first, video games can serve as an excellent way to learn the system. They can't get it 100% correct, but they'll bring a player close to system mastery a lot faster than just starting from scratch with the books.

Having followed Hasbro and WotC for the last several years (and also being a Magic: the Gathering player), I think you have one part of the analysis exactly backwards: it is not WotC itself that is making these bad choices for D&D (and MtG), it's Hasbro. WotC was quite successful and had a good relationship with it's fandom for a number of years. Then Hasbro started taking a greater interest (because WotC was making money while the rest of the company was not); Hasbro started making changes at WotC, emphasising monetization over product quality and customer satisfaction. MtG was hit first (and hardest), but there has definitely been a decline of quality in D&D as well; as far as I can tell, this has been entirely due to increased Hasbro involvement and attention (including taking WotC from being a subsidiary and instead making them a division of Hasbro itself, putting them more fully under Hasbro's control). Virtually every questionable monetization decision has been (as far as I can tell from my position as an outside observer) a decision pushed on WotC by Hasbro, and their desire to use WotC profits to keep failing divisions of the company afloat. As I understand it, the current CEO of WotC (and her ruthless monetization mindset) were choices Hasbro made, not WotC itself. Now, I don't want to suggest WotC is this angelic organization that can do no wrong; they certainly made their share of mistakes and just generally poor decisions; but, most of the terrible monetization choices have come from Hasbro.

If they made basic adventures and let the DM have an interface where they can customise monsters, damages, traps and treasures or other features... this would be cooperative gaming ... it would almost feel like directing the adventure without the hassle of having to fight for monsters

There's an influx of new players in the official D&D Discord server who arrived via BG3. One thing I noticed that is they have a mindset of the 5E rules based on BG3, which is heavily homebrewed compared to the 5E SRD. One person thought rogues in 5E have two Bonus Actions because apparently it's a thing in BG3.

Hasbro D&D has no impact on how I play Fantasy Ttrpg but it's entertaining to follow the ebbs and flows!

Before BG3 I basically had no hope of ever doing Tier 3 or 4 play. Because it's just too complex. But thanks to BG3 it's now realistic. Because all the candidates have hundreds of hours in BG3. and therefore are very familiar with everything up to including the entirety of tier 2. With the addition for wizards: "Oh yeah, in the table top variant you can stay mid air and shoot fireballs. You don't have to land. You only risk to fall to the ground if your concentration is broken." And they won't even ask what concentration is or what happens when they fall!

I think Baldur’s Gate 3 is different enough from 5e (mage hand has hit points and can shove, rangers are completely different, spells are reworked, rests work differently, etc.) that I think changing to the tabletop game will be a learning process regardless of whether it’s OneD&D or not.

Turning BG3 into a VTT will take a lot more work than just releasing modding tools. Creating the entire DM side of things is a lot of work. It would probably be a better VTT than what Wizards are cooking, but I would not hold my breath for it