What if? The key to making good decisions | Nidhi Kalra | TEDxManhattanBeach

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Published 2016-01-22

Decisions would be so much easier if we had crystal balls to see into the future! But they don’t exist and the world is uncertain!. Nidhi challenges us to move away from making decisions by trying to predict the future, and towards making decisions that will accommodate many different possibilities. By asking "What If?" instead of "What's Next?" we can better prepare ourselves, our communities, and our world, for the uncertain future ahead.

Nidhi Kalra is a senior information scientist at RAND Corporation, codirector of RAND's Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Kalra’s research at RAND Corporation addresses energy, environment, and science and technology policy. She recently led projects to ensure long-term water security in Lima, Peru and to provide policy guidance on autonomous vehicle technologies. Her clients include the State of California, the World Bank, the U.S. National Cooperative Highway Research Program, the Government of Qatar, the Federal Highway Administration, and the Department of Defense. In 2013, she served as a senior decision scientist in the Office of the Chief Economist of Sustainable Development at the World Bank. She has also developed educational technology tools to promote literacy among blind children in developing countries. Kalra received her Ph.D. in robotics from Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at ted.com/tedx

All Comments (21)

@AdventureMomJourneys 6 years ago

I wish the toughest decision I had to make had to do with buying a piano. This video isn’t cutting it.
@winonadaphne6445 4 years ago

I was not expecting this to lead into a talk about climate change
@uklk 6 years ago

Suddenly you changed ur subject to climate, its like i got teleported to another subject
@SamHasPlans 4 years ago

Beautiful talk, thank you for your insight!
@meherk3322 4 years ago

' What if ' is really not a great option when making decisions about relationships. In fact, its the one thing that held me from moving on for long. This theory can certainly not be applied to all types of decisions
@gamiezion 8 years ago

i really needed this, thanks. if i can summarize it "boils" down to something like: be like water. if water is poured into a cup it becomes a cup. put water into a pitcher and it becomes the pitcher. put the water into a bowl and it becomes a bowl, but if they crash, the water crashes.
@ergia4822 6 years ago

The 'What if question' is a way out of a stalemate. But, what if, if your'e proven wrong in the future. The only thing we can say is, we will deal with it when we come to it.
@williamstanley4960 3 years ago

The idea to go from digital to real was the good portion of the idea you had at the start, and your husband's concerns were also clearly good, too. The result came from discovering the actual thing you wanted, and then both agreed!
@CelticSpirit7 5 years ago

Right now today I'm faced with the same decision I've been contemplating for the last year...putting off the inevitable...3 days ago I asked a highly successful business owner for advice about this decision I am losing sleep over and his advice was to go ahead...put the wheels in motion, however, he said before you do ask the question What if? I've been formulating my 'what if' questions in preparation for speaking with the IFA...I can see more clearly now than I did before listening to your piano and climate change analogies...I can see the bigger picture now thank you...it's not rocket science...I was just narrowing down all good possible outcomes and replacing them with the oh my god what if this is all wrong for me...maybe I shouldn't do this...trying so hard to see infinite possibilities and only seeing brick walls and disappointment...the crystal ball sure would save me some major concerns...but you're right no one can make those predictions..yet if I open my mind and be ready with my what if' s.. I can move forward with ease. ..
@suzanne2650 6 years ago

I have such a hard time making decisions. Am I doing the responsible things by finding a stable job or follow my passion and face uncertainty? Its sooo difficult. Both options give me anxiety..
@ariannacaruso5227 4 years ago

I loved it
@RosellArriolaEvangelist 6 years ago

I love her
@boldorbroken 4 years ago

You can't make good decisions with bad or incomplete information. Sometimes dice are your best friend. 😁
@yasirobaid6857 5 years ago

I have a feeling that audiences are not in the same room with the speaker! there is a time-lag between speaker's pauses and audience's laughter
@HP-vy6is 6 years ago

Awesome solution ...Thanks Nidhi for creative solution
@balasubbhramaniyamayyaswaa5263 7 years ago

What if, she is wrong?
@petitio_principii 6 years ago

Climate change is more of an issue to people and a good deal of current life, but not life in general, even if it ultimately culminates in a mass extinctions. It's pretty hard to get rid of all life, there are bacteria that adapted to live in nuclear reactors, with astounding abilities in DNA-repair.
@Chris0mr 7 years ago

Is the transcript for this video available anywhere? I'm an EFL teacher and it would help me a bunch to make activities with this video in class.
@beneath.the.rosesluciddrea8470 5 years ago

One thing though.. if you want to start playing any instrument as a new hobby, getting a hobby version is actually a terrible idea because you are less likely to practice on something that doesn't sound good.
@williamstanley4960 3 years ago

We have had absolutely no effect on the global climate. It has been recorded throughout history to be a changing reality as it goes between warmer and cooler. For what it is worth, it is nothing one needs to take any actual thought for. Seed time and harvest will continue unhindered until the end. And, there will be oil and wine until the end, too.