China’s Military Scandal: Why a Taiwan Invasion Might Have Just Become Impossible

The idea that someone can be so corrupt that Bloomberg takes notice of it is both terrifying and laughable.

Slight correction: The phrase "Fill water" is a mistranslation. "Filled water" is a common Chinese phrase used to denote that a high quality item has been replaced with a lower quality item (Such as an expensive broth being replaced with tap water). Despite what Bloomberg states, the Chinese missiles were not literally "Filled with Water", but rather, the expensive rocket fuel used in the missiles were replaced with subpar fuel, with officials pocketing the difference. This means that Chinese missiles would still be able to fire & work as normal, but would not have enough range to go further than the Chinese coast. It also means that Chinese missiles might self-implode if they were ever launched.

in Russia we have a common saying:"strictness of laws is negated by the optionality of their enforcement" I think it applies to Chinese corruption quite well, as death penalty for corruption in China is not unheard of, yet corruption persists nonetheless

Another important lesson not touched upon is the reason for the missing fuel. If the troops are so insufficiently provided for in something as high profile as the rocket forces, how bad is it for guys in the field? I imagine supply issues are rampant throughout the Chinese military but aren’t really talked about.

As a person of Chinese descent, this isn’t surprising at all. Comical levels of corruption has been a plague two centuries running. You had admirals breaking down warship guns for scrap metal, an empress looting the army funds for palace renovations, and the utter disarray of the Warlord era. Yeah, not really that surprised here.

As a Taiwanese, I would say that it's never completely off the table for China invading Taiwan because that's their internal rhetoric for many years and someone will be crazy enough to launch one, even if it is doomed from the beginning. So I would never agree with closer economic ties with China, because it opens door for them to conquer us economically, if they can't militarily take Taiwan then it's even more important that they don't take over economically, let them stay at an arms length and implode themselves over their Taiwan policy.

Their banking system is in a mess too

I’d stay cautious in case it’s disinformation… never underestimate your enemy. Edited: F.ing autocorrection

The one thing that makes me believe China's military is probably not that scary is how much they focus on choreography. They believe that acting like robots is a sign of efficiency, but in war things can get pretty unpredictable. Corruption, inflexibility and inexperience will severely limit the PLA in a real conflict, no matter how many aliexpress F35s they build.

I worked on and off in China over the last 20 years. Corruption and the required lavish dinners were mandatory across the board in the early 2000's. By 2017 they were gone for most business as people were afraid of being charged with corruption. My colleagues mentioned 'except in the military '. When we were discussing it. Never gave it much thought.

Well i just shared this far and wide, something this important needs an audience. Excellent article, thank you

I think if there is one thing history has taught us is that when an autocratic state decides on something it will do it - whether it makes any strategic sense or not. I can point to Russia and Ukraine, Hitler and Halder (as Troyriser mentioned), Gallipoli and several of the weirder troop movements in Medieval British history. China may find itself in a position where it makes sense to attack Taiwan, purely because the party needs some kind of enemy to bolster itself against.

One correction: The people hand picked for the positions (who were subsequently sacked) weren't picked because they were seen as the "best and brightest" that the country had to offer. They were party members who had been given the appointments due to perceived loyalty to the people who made the appointment. The Chinese government is not a meritocracy.

Perun touched on the Bloomberg report on his channel. He did a very good job explaining why some of the things reported should be taken with a pinch of salt.

And also think that information like this should be kept on the down low to prevent realization to adversaries .

Before we get too confident that there won't be a war over Taiwan is growing less and less likely, let's remember that not all war decisions are made using game theory like risk/reward assessments. Sometimes a leader has a political faction critical to them holding power barking in their ear, and even if that war is ruinous in the long term, the leader has to do it anyway because the PERSONAL consequences would be disastrous and more immediate if they don't. I think it's ALWAYS been the case that invading Taiwan would be an epically stupid move. Ukraine, China's economic downturn, the risk of long term economic sanctions and damage, and the fact that they're unlikely to be successful (according to nonclassified wargames) all tell the tale - China should NOT invade Taiwan. But with alot of US advanced programs scheduled to bear fruit in the early 2030s, and their buildup, Winnie the Pooh may have hawks in his party who think it's 'now or never', and want to roll the dice. Perhaps hawks who have bought into their own propaganda, or believe the west is too weak/corrupt to stand up for Taiwan. Just because it's a stupid decision, doesn't mean it's a decision that can't be made. That's why sticking with Ukraine and building up deterrence in the short term is so important. It needs to be obvious even to those hawks that the west will act, and they will lose.

Widespread corruption in a centrally planned economy? I am SHOCKED and APPALLED

Thanks for providing sources in the description

Given the very poor state of readiness by the US Navy due to failed LCS programs, delayed Constellation class frigate building, and the slightly failed Zumwalt program, I have been greatly concerned. This news is quite welcome and comforting indeed.

Reminds me of the Battle of the Yalu River (1894) when the Chinese fleet sortied to face the Japanese, only to find that most of the heavy shells were filled with cement and broken porcelain, while the gunpowder charges were from condemned batches well past their use-by date. Glad to see modern China keeping this proud military tradition alive.