Why China’s Property Crisis is Still Getting Worse
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Published 2024-06-20
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Following CCP's unsuccessful attempt to save the Chinese housing market, the property prices continue to fall and now stand at nearly 8% YoY. So, in this video, we're taking a look at what is driving this slump, and whether it could get better anytime soon.
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1 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/china-h…
2 - www.caixinglobal.com/2021-07-31/weekend-long-read-…
3 - www.researchgate.net/publication/277941900_Househo…
4 - www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/chinas-property-market-deb…
5 - www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/person…
6 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/china-r…
7 - twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro/status/18027073733474841…
All Comments (21)
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CORRECTION: At 1:33, when we show a graph comparing house prices to incomes across various cities. On the Y-axis, there are percentages after the units, when there should in fact be multiples. Apologies for this error, and we hope you nonetheless enjoy the vid!
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I hate the fact that most economies are set up in a way where house prices falling is a crisis
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Falling property prices should happen and it's a healthy development. Bubbles should not be kept inflated for ever.
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This year is going to be worse than the last, no doubt about it. Due to poor investment decisions that I would not have made if I hadn't been so concerned about my portfolio, I lost a significant amount of money last year. I continued to invest, but I was undecided about whether to begin making house payments. I eventually sold my jobs, and the house required more work than I had anticipated. I'm not sure how much longer I can continue in this manner.
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Step 1. Invest in property for speculation and personal wealth purposes in a country with a falling population and no immigration Step 2. ???? Step 3. Profit?
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15 cities in China stopped publishing realized prices on 2nd hand homes because they are so far below state mandated values.
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If you are not in the financial market right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation
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The Hukou system pretty much boils down to "Be poor in your home town or be a slave in a city," which pretty much warps the calculus for buying a home.
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Last quarter, I hit the $100,000 mark, which was exciting but unremarkable. You continue to work, save, and make wise decisions despite the uncertain economic climate. Nevertheless, my portfolio has seen a significant fall in spite of market increases. My goal is to enhance it and optimize the yield.
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The cost of housing in Shanghai is over 40 times the average income of the city. Keep that in mind when you consider rising or falling prices.
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"Moral hazard" is only ever thought of when regular people might get debt forgiveness. There's never a moral hazard for bailing out banks, corporations, and the rich. Debt jubilees were common and regular all throughout history until the enlightenment. The late, great David Graeber has much to say about this in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years.
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It's definitely alarming to hear about a default cycle, especially in the context of the housing market. Defaults can lead to foreclosures, and that has a cascading effect on the overall real estate landscape.
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Thumbnail lookin like one of those "China WILL explode in 10 DAYS!" videos
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I swear every time I see one of these videos I think "Why does TLDR upload at 3 AM?" Then I remember how timezones work.
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The economic crisis is really worrying, especially with everything going on in the global economy.
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Confused Europeans looking at China: "Wait... You are in a crisis because your home prices are falling ?????"
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Notice that the Chinese government isn't bailing out these developers
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falling rent and house prices are a good thing actually
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I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Abby Joseph Cohen. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.
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Your interpretation of the house price change chart was wrong. Any period where the change is above zero, prices are still growing, so it's only been falling in the negative region, or a little longer if you break apart the yoy number into mom numbers
