Flying vs driving. Which is safer? (On 2 hr flights, Flying is 50% riskier)

Ztech
Ztech
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Published 2016-08-16
On a 2 hr commercial flight, the chances of dying from an accident, is about 50% greater than dying in a car crash, as a non-fault driver, for the same duration. I used 2014 car/sedan data and commercial jet data (gross weight over 60K lbs), between 2004-2013. Derived rates are RISK OF DYING AS A PASSENGER BASED PER FLIGHT TIME, and RISK OF DYING AS NON-FAULT DRIVER OR PASSENGER OF A NON-FAULT DRIVER, PER DRIVING TIME.

Aircraft data excludes small planes and all private planes. Data restricted to On-board fatalities. Excludes incidence of hijacking, foul-play.
Vehicle data restricted to in-car related fatalities, and driver related fatalities. Excludes all Pedestrian, Motorcycle, Large Truck, Misc. Vehicle related fatalities.


** NOTE: I may have made a heuristic error in deriving the risk associated with flying. Specifically, when assigning constant risks associated with the Taxi,Takeoff,Climb,Descent, Approach, Landing phase, and assigning a variable risk based on the number of minutes beyond 88.5 in cruise. It feels right, if I am wrong, please point it out, and elaborate.

I've also assumed that in cruise flight risk increases linearly. This may not be the case, but I haven't found the right data yet to confirm or reject this.


Sources: Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents Worldwide Operations | 1959 – 2013, Boeing.

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety: www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fata…

FARS Database: www.nhtsa.gov/FARS
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