ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN | Close to Peace?

This week, I wanted to look at the ongoing peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While this hasn't been in the international news lately, there's a lot of hope that the sides can reach an agreement. But what do you think? Is a final settlement really possible? Or will Azerbaijan back out? Aliyev already talking about an interim deal rather than a final agreement. And what about opposition in Armenia and amongst the diaspora? How do they feel about an agreement, and about Pashinyan? Finally, will any settlement last? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

Professor please also do a video on recent iran elections in which a reformist leader was the winner. What are implications of this election and will it lead to peace from recent conflicts happening due to iran vs israel/usa

In hindsight it's incredible that Karabakh held out as long as it did. It was a relic of an entirely different geopolitical environment where newly independent, incredibly weak states were trying to find their place on the world stage. But with the rise and entrenchment of Erdogan coupled with the desire for Azeri natural gas & LNG meant that Karabakhi autonomy was just no longer sustainable as Baku kept arming itself, thereby further strengthening its military posture vis-a-vis Stepanakert.

Professor, Armenia did not lose territory, it just could not occupy it forever.

As a victor, I don't think AZ would agree to any deal without the removal of the "land claim" in the AM constitution. Also, the corridor might actually be economically beneficial to AM as well...

No one talked about peace for 30 years, when the Azeris were successful in the war, peace suddenly came to someone's mind

As a side note, this most recent shooting war literally touched the other side of the world. I was driving home from work along the 134 Freeway, just north of Los Angeles when the traffic suddenly came to a halt in Glendale, which has a strong Armenian-American community. Apparently, some protestors had blocked off the freeway to draw attention to what was happening in Karabakh.

As always, an excellent video - well-informed, informative and balanced.

no question in the comments? One always hopes for peace. Listening to this gives me the feeling that Armenia is negotiating in good faith, I don't get that same confidence from Azerbaijan. feelings however are only useful about half the time. Peace 🕊🕊🕊

Very good video James! I believe that even if the agreement is reached, it will only last if Armenian army is strong enough so that Azerbaijan has a lot to lose. Loss of Nagorno Karabah is Armenian fault. While Azerbaijan used its oil money to build military, Armenian politicians were busy stealing. The only guarantee for peace is a strong military, always was and always will be. International law is only present on paper and is being applied to weak contries.

thanks for the video professor as an Azerbaijani I can say that the agreement is not yet the peak of success. We must understand how the peoples will get along with each other and this is a big question. Because both peoples have a dislike for each other and this makes you wonder if there will really be REAL peace

I remember when the war over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out, as the old USS was disintegrating. At the time, the Armenians were able to achieve the conquest of the area due to better organization, equipment, and experience (many Armenian personnel having been veterans of the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan). All these years later, it's been impressive how Azerbaijan has been able to train and equip a force large enough to achieve its strategic objective.

Long awaited analysis. Thank you, professor.

I am a diaspran Armenian and I feel that the professor has described the situation and its prospects very well.

Great analysis as always professor. I fear that unless the E.U puts pressure on baku( not likely because they need them as a bridge for central Asian oil and natural gas), aliyev will have no incentive to accept a reasonable peace deal. Do you think the September 2023 offensive was the last straw in the Russia armenia relationship? I think that Russia will not let Armenia leave its sphere of influence so easily. I also think that Russia has too much leverage over Armenia’s economy for Armenia to move westward so suddenly.

I have been multiple times to both countries. I am a 3rd national (Italian). I have friends on both sides. Mind that while in Baku I was asking "can I say the A word" (meaning at Armenia) and viceversa in Yerevan (meaning at Azerbaijan) and nobody cared that much, because it's the main topic in both countries and everyone at least once, talked about it. One factor that probably most of you won't understand is that how entrenched is this war in regular people. These are relatively small countries. Everyone knows at least someone who got displaced (I know people who left Stepanakert last year personally, I have an Azerbaijani friend who originally was displaced in the 90s as result of the occupation of NK), someone who was at the front, maybe someone who died and it will take 50 years of peaceful coexistence to fix these issues. At least. Not to mention the fact in a hostel in Tbilisi once I was in a room with people from both countries, and they kinda started yelling each other, rather than comprehending. It's so incredibly sad that two people - aside from religion - that shares so much in so many things, hates so much. And once abroad, these things tend to disappear. With some - as aforementioned - exceptions. I don't know if the wounds will be healed or if the scars will slowly disappear. There's just hope for the stop of the hostilities, once and for all. This implies also Turkey, starting to finally recognize the Armenian Border, and working / cooperating better on the huge armenian heritage which is in the country (E.G. Akdamar Island, Ani, and much more), and possibly, move on with the genocide (finding a compromize between recognition that it happened from Turkish side vs Armenia dropping clauses to ask for Compensations which might arise once got the recognition) The region deserves peace, stability, prosperity and cooperation. We all deserve to move on.

To me the situation really feels like Azerbaijan will be the one not honoring any peace agreements. The prospect of controlling the Zangezur Corridor seems to be very tempting to them, and there are frequently conferences attended by cabinet officials and members of the ruling party calling for a Republic of Western Azerbaijan/Irevan... And given the need that Armenia is currently only in the beginning stages of connecting closer to France militarily and no longer cooperate with Russia, they're lacking security guarantees. Meanwhile Azerbaijan is also flexing a lot of soft power and is antagonizing France, likely BECAUSE it started supporting Armenia. I'm worried.

Surprised to hear phrases like: “Armenia will probably learn to accept that nagorno karabakh is lost forever” .. “nations that loose historic territory at some point move on” .. you always seemed to be more diplomatic and refrained from taking sides so far, I wonder what has changed to make you deviate from your norm

I find this very useful, James. Thank you for an enlightening exposition on the current state of affairs in the region.

Also - what is the position of Iran with regard to maintaining its border with Armenia? And what are the broader implications shld that border disappear?