Did I choose the right Octopus tariff for April 2024? - Testing my rule of thumb

I've been on Agile for a few months and was considering swapping to Flux for April. However, after using your rule of thumb I decided to stick with Agile (15p fixed export) as my generation/consumption ratio is only 0.7 from my 4.3kW array. It turned out to be a good choice as my April bill was -£47.29, although I do run Predbat on Home Assistant to calculate the best daily charge/discharge of the battery. Also Flux standing charge would be higher for me than sticking on Agile due to the recent price increases. April was a good month for plunge prices and Predbat took full advantage of this.

Loving the stats and facts. Great video thank you for taking the time. Loving the scientific method of testing your theories.

Super interesting! We used your rule of thumb to switch to Intelligent Go but haven’t yet managed to get an export MPAN set up (moving away from legacy FiT) so have been preferring to soak up excess solar with household usage rather than export. Once the SEG kicks in I will be very interested to find out whether we made the right choice!

Interesting Tim, good to see your model is holding up. I know you ruled Agile out because of its variability but you could done some modelling based on average non-peak or average night-time price - that’s what I did last October as I knew I was considering options and knew I wouldn’t be importing in the peak period. I don’t have an EV so my summer choice is to retain Agile or move back to Flux. I’ve decided that for now I’ll stay with Agile as I am getting lower import prices than I would on Flux. My average Agile import rate in April was 7.64p so my logic goes (roughly): Flux day-time export similar to Fixed 15p import so ignore from comparison. Flux night-time import similar to Flux day-time export so no material advantage (unless not sunny) to import to battery overnight. Flux peak export is 10p/kWh better than 15p export but since I don’t want to import overnight and need to retain the battery through to the next day I’d be doing only limited peak forced export. So the upside of Flux is the peak export of excess solar at 10p/kWh, the upside of Agile is average import 8p/kWh better than Flux. Agile has a lower standing charge than Flux and any import (e.g. running the oven or hot tub) further erodes the Flux benefit as the import rates are so high. Anyway that’s my man-maths for staying with Agile. April I made £98 profit (excluding standing charge). 1200kWh generated, 840kWh exported, 420 imported, 720 consumed.

Hi Tim, you should add Agile plus fixed export at 15p to your chart as this has been the best tariff for me and looking to use it summer and winter.

Hi Tim, many thanks for your excellent explanation. May I ask does the above hold true with solar, battery and EV charging combined. Or is the outlook different. If so what are your thoughts ?

Changed from Go to Flux on 18th March 2024. April's bill from Octopus was £47.14cr. Only imported 30.11kWhs and exported 329.83Kwhs. Also force exporting for 2 hours a day when the battery was either full or at least 70%. Managed to force export for 3 hours since 2nd May 2024.

Well done. I got paid £15 from Octopus for April. The updated standing charge is eating into potential profits. May is already looking good though.

Intelligent go is just a beast of a tariff.

As per my comments on the previous video, I changed to OIF but like you had issues getting connected. I also advised that I had a rogue day where the data was corrupted. The only solution was to delete the rogue data which corrected the problem but that data is lost forever. It’s happened again yesterday so I’m starting to think that giving control to Octopus is the issue here - it’s too much of a coincidence - I’m considering changing back to bog standard flux - Caveat Emptor!

We are on flux. It’s just nice and easy without getting too involved in needing to micromanage it. We don’t need to get every penny out of the system. Should be better in summer even when we keep exporting even more surplus between 4pm and 7pm as well

Just watched the video and the spreadsheet is exactly what I'm looking for to figure out when to switch from Octopus Go to Flux. How an I get hold of a copy of the spreadsheet?

When i have some time this week i plan to switch to IO (from Go). Still waiting for the mpan stuff to be set up so i can then get the export tariff. At present I'm in the old fashioned mode of using as much generated electric as possible

Hi Tim Love the videos so informative. I switched to Intelligent flux at the start of April Like you did. and recently got the email saying they had sorted the problem out. However I went onto Intelligent go and now due to my use get the 7.5p rate for most if not all of the day Once my battery is full I export it back to the grid and the recharge at the low rate. am I wrong to use the tariff in this way.

Interesting video Tim - many thanks. Would be interested in your thoughts on income tax implications given we are all exporting much more than we used to and probably exceed the 20% of consumption HMRC limit. I am getting close I think but need to see how it works out over a full year. TIA

I am still on flux balance went up by just over £50:00 for April So no electric bill now for over 18 mths

I finally managed to connect my Givenergy All in One to Intelligent Octopus Flux in early May, whatever the issue was over the last few months appears to have been fixed. It’s not entirely flawless however, as on Sunday 5th May it failed to commence exporting until 16:30 and, was in fact, continuing to import from the grid at the higher rate, not ideal! Also, the system continues exporting to the grid, when solar generation is greater than my consumption and the battery is below 100%. This seems counter intuitive to me, as I would expect generation to the battery up to 100% before commencing export to the grid. Some investigation of the Octopus algorithm is due, or at least a reasoned explanation from Octopus as to why this is the case.

Hi Tim, Do you have Octopus powerups in your area (2,3 or 4 hour sessions of free lecky twice ish a week) If so how does that work with these smart tariffs? eg. Sometimes the free period is in the peak period.

Surely flux only really works if you’re using HA ? To make use of exporting the battery during peak ? If you don’t have HA then IOF is be probably the easists

Impressive work, but I must say that when you are putting 25000 to 3000 kWh into your EV the intelligent Octopus Go is a winner for 6 hours (or more) of 7.5p per kWh electricity!